iGaming in July 2026: The UK Tightens Player Checks, ESMA Targets Prediction Markets, Brazil Surges and Europe Fights the Black Market

July 2026 opens on a distinctly regulatory note for the iGaming industry. The biggest stories are not new bonuses or ad campaigns, but the control of players’ financial risk, rising licence costs, the fight against the illegal market, betting taxation, and prediction markets — which are moving ever more clearly onto the radar of both gambling and financial regulators.

The simplest conclusion from the latest reporting is this: the market keeps growing, especially in Brazil, Africa and LatAm, but operators must increasingly prove they can work in a model that is responsible, transparent and compliant with local law.

UK: financial risk assessments roll out in phases

The strongest regulatory story of early July is the British Gambling Commission’s decision to phase in Financial Risk Assessments for players with very high deposits. In the first stage the system targets the largest operators and customers with extreme deposit levels. For most players the opening threshold will be £5,000 net deposits in 24 hours, and for younger, higher-risk groups £2,500 in 24 hours. Once fully implemented, the thresholds are set to fall to £1,000 in 24 hours or £3,000 over 90 days for those aged 25 and over, and £750 in 24 hours or £2,000 over 90 days for those under 25.

The regulator stresses that the checks should be “frictionless” — most players will not need to submit documents. According to the Gambling Commission, fewer than 3% of accounts would require such an assessment at all after full implementation, and 97% of cases should pass without friction on the customer side. The crucial caveat is that the industry still worries about part of the player base drifting to the black market, especially if operators apply limits too aggressively.

For operators and affiliates this shifts the narrative in the UK. The market will no longer be judged only through conversion, stakes and retention, but also by how quickly an operator can detect financially vulnerable players and reduce the risk of harm. (iGB, Gambling Commission)

UK: Gambling Commission licences get more expensive

The second British theme is rising regulatory costs. The DCMS has confirmed a package of fee increases for the Gambling Commission, due to take effect from 1 October 2026. The final choice was a standard 25% rise for most licence categories, though earlier consultation variants floated 20%, 30%, or 20% plus an additional 10% ringfenced for fighting the illegal market.

Notably, the DCMS rejected the idea of explicitly ringfencing extra fees for black-market enforcement. Instead, the Gambling Commission is to continue acting against the illegal market with the support of separate funding from HM Treasury worth £26 million over three years.

This is another layer of cost pressure on legal operators. In the UK, taxes, licence fees and compliance requirements are all rising at once. For large players it is a manageable barrier. For smaller operators and white-labels it may mean consolidation, or withdrawal from less profitable segments. (iGB)

ESMA: prediction markets may fall under financial regulation

The most interesting strategic story of the month is ESMA’s warning on prediction markets and event contracts. The European financial regulator reminded the market that some contracts based on a “yes/no” outcome and a fixed payout may qualify as financial instruments — specifically as binary options subject to retail-sales restrictions.

This matters, because prediction markets often try to operate on the boundary of finance, betting, crypto and technology. ESMA states clearly that not every event contract is a financial instrument, but if its construction and underlying fall within the scope of MiFID II, the operator cannot pretend it is merely a “new type of bet” or a social product. Even distribution to professional clients may require authorisation as an investment firm.

In practice this could be a turning point for prediction markets in Europe. Gibraltar is trying to build a friendly environment for licensed platforms, but ESMA shows that some products may require not only a gambling licence but also compliance with financial regulation. (iGB, ESMA)

ADI Predictstreet: Gibraltar opens the door, Germany checks the ads

Against the same backdrop comes ADI Predictstreet, a Gibraltar-licensed prediction-market platform and the official prediction-markets partner for World Cup 2026. The platform has been cleared to expand its offering beyond football — into other sports, entertainment, culture, weather and selected political events.

At the same time the German regulator GGL is running a formal investigation into ADI Predictstreet’s advertising during the World Cup. The problem is that the operator holds no German licence, yet its ads were visible around globally broadcast matches. The GGL is therefore examining whether the platform offered illegal gambling and whether it breached German advertising rules.

This exposes the practical conflict of prediction markets: a product can be legal in one jurisdiction, but its advertising around a global sporting event automatically reaches countries where it holds no licence. For affiliates and sports media it is a warning sign — “licensed in Gibraltar” alone is not enough when promoting across Europe. (iGB)

Netherlands: KSA tightens its approach to affordability checks

The Dutch regulator KSA has updated its guidance on the statutory means test for online players. Since October 2024, operators in the Netherlands must carry out an affordability assessment when a player wants to set a monthly deposit limit above €300 net for those aged 18–24, or €700 for those 24 and over.

The new guidance clarifies that operators should base limits solely on stable, recurring income. The KSA indicated that savings, business assets, home value, bonuses or one-off payments should not be treated as regular income when assessing affordability. After inspecting 20 licensees, the regulator found further shortcomings and applied, among other measures, 10 remedial conversations, three formal warnings and one binding instruction.

The Netherlands is thus moving in a similar direction to the UK, but defines a player’s real financial capacity more precisely. For operators that means less room for creative interpretation and greater sanction risk for badly set limits. (iGB)

Brazil: the legal market generates ever-larger revenue

Brazil remains one of the most important global markets. According to data reported by iGB, the Brazilian sports-betting and online-gaming sector generated BRL 5.89 billion in revenue from January to May 2026, against BRL 3.169 billion in the same period of 2025 — a rise of 85.88%.

iGB also notes that across the whole of 2025 Brazil collected BRL 9.95 billion from betting, and the pace of the first five months of 2026 suggests it could exceed BRL 14 billion for the full year. An additional catalyst is the World Cup: by 25 June, players had already transferred close to BRL 510 million to betting platforms.

Brazil’s biggest problem is still the illegal/offshore market. The legal market shows major fiscal value, but its full potential will depend on whether the government can effectively block unlicensed sites and redirect players to regulated operators. (iGB)

Brazil: M&A accelerates as Esportes da Sorte acquires Apostou.com

Brazil also shows rising consolidation. The Esportes da Sorte Group has acquired Apostou.com, the operator of BETBR Loterias, also taking on the B1BET and BRBET brands. The company is licensed by the SPA and has a stronger physical presence in the state of Paraná.

The move shows that the Brazilian market is quickly shifting from a “licence and entry” phase to a “scale and distribution” phase. Local presence, market knowledge and an existing customer base are gaining value. For foreign operators, it may prove easier to buy a local position than to build one from scratch. (iGB)

Entain exits CEE despite strong results

One of the more intriguing strategic stories is Entain’s decision to sell a 20% stake in Entain CEE to EMMA Capital for around €425 million, as a first step toward a full exit from the region. It is surprising, because CEE did not look like an operational problem: the unit generated £522 million NGR in 2025, up 7% year on year, with EBITDA rising to £183.7 million. STS in Poland and SuperSport in Croatia held their leadership positions.

iGB suggests the reason is more financial than operational. Entain is under pressure after UK tax rises, where Remote Gaming Duty climbs from 21% to 40% and sports-betting duty from 15% to 25%. According to iGB, Entain’s effective tax rate on UK profits could exceed 80%.

It is an important signal for investors: even good assets can be sold if a group needs capital or wants to reduce exposure. In iGaming, M&A decisions will increasingly be driven by tax and balance-sheet pressure, not just by the quality of a given market. (iGB)

Italy: a 2% levy on domestic football bets

In Italy, a draft bill proposes a 2% levy on all domestic football bets. The charge would fund the Italian football system, including youth training, women’s football, infrastructure and social action to reduce problem gambling. The bill would take effect from 1 January 2027 if it clears the legislative process.

The mechanics are simple: licensed operators would remit 2% of the stake on bets to the FIGC each quarter. At least 50% of the funds would go to youth development and infrastructure, at least 30% to social initiatives, and the remaining 20% to women’s football and grassroots.

It is a model that could interest other countries. States increasingly view betting not just as a source of tax, but as a mechanism to fund sport and harm prevention. (iGB)

Africa: regulation, taxes and channelisation as the core challenge

Africa was one of iGB’s big themes in early July. According to H2 Gambling Capital, cited by iGB, South Africa was in 2025 the largest online gambling market on the continent, with gross win of $5.2 billion — almost five times more than Nigeria at $1.6 billion. Online accounted for $3.26 billion of that South African result.

At the same time, African regulators met in London during iGB L!VE 2026 to discuss licensing, taxes and player protection. At least eight jurisdictions took part: Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, Malawi, Rwanda, Ghana, Tanzania and Angola. One outcome was to bring forward the Africa Safer Gambling Week initiative.

In Africa the key challenge will be finding balance. If taxes are too high, players will stay with offshore sites. If regulation is too loose, fast-growing mobile markets can quickly generate social problems. The best models will likely combine reasonable taxes, local mobile payments, player protection and real blocking of illegal operators. (iGB — Africa market, iGB — regulators)

Balkans: operators join forces against the black market

iGB also reports the formation of the Balkan Gaming Federation, which brings together industry organisations from Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia. The federation aims to fight the illegal market and promote proportionate regulation.

It is an interesting signal, because the Balkans are regulatorily fragmented and highly exposed to cross-border offshore. If local operators face high taxes and high compliance requirements while competing with unlicensed sites, the legal market loses channelisation.

Industry federations may therefore become an increasingly important lever on governments. Their argument will be simple: the legal market cannot beat the black market if regulation is too expensive, too slow and too detached from real player behaviour. (iGB)

Czech Republic: an interesting model of cooperation between operators, experts and regulators

In the Czech Republic, iGB highlights a model built around IPRH and the IRIS project. According to the reporting, IPRH represents around 95% of the regulated Czech gambling market, but wants to act more as a platform for cooperation between operators, addiction experts, behavioural economists, regulators and government than as a classic lobbying body.

This matters, because the Czech model offers an alternative to the “operators versus regulators” conflict. If data on player behaviour can be analysed across operators rather than at a single one, it is easier to detect problematic patterns — but it also raises questions about privacy, data quality and the real effectiveness of interventions.

The Czech Republic may be an interesting case study for other Central European countries, especially where the black market is large and regulators lack enough data to build effective policy. (iGB)

Esports betting: higher stakes, live betting and more advanced markets

Drawing on an Oddin.gg report, iGB points out that esports betting remains an undervalued but very valuable segment. The key findings: the average esports bettor’s stake is said to be 7 times higher than in traditional sports, the median betting volume rose 31% year on year, and the average stake at the biggest esports event was €77. Live betting dominated, and more complex bet markets are gaining importance.

This shows esports should not be treated merely as an add-on for younger players. It is a segment with high engagement, strong live potential and plenty of room for specialist products. For operators, though, the challenges remain data quality, match integrity and the need to understand specific titles rather than dumping all of esports into one category. (iGB)

Payments: virtual assets as infrastructure, not just “crypto casino”

iGB also published a conversation on the future of payments, in which RYKI points to the growing importance of virtual assets in iGaming. According to data cited in the piece, crypto-funded wagers may account for around 17% of global iGaming bets, and more than 30% of online operators already support some form of cryptocurrency payment.

The biggest problem with legacy payments remains cross-border settlement: transfers via SWIFT and correspondent banking can take 3–7 days, and the FX spread adds 50–100 bps of cost per transaction.

The conclusion is intriguing: crypto in iGaming is ceasing to be just a narrative about “anonymous deposits”. Increasingly it is about the speed of B2B settlement, cross-jurisdiction settlement, lower costs and compliance-aware payment infrastructure. (iGB)

LatAm: the growth is huge, but localisation decides the outcome

LatAm remains one of the most attractive growth regions. iGB indicates that online betting and gaming in Latin America could exceed $10 billion GGR in the coming years, with the number of users rising to 72.1 million by 2029 at a user penetration of 11.1%. Brazil and Mexico matter most, but Chile, Peru and Colombia are also growing strongly.

The key point, though, is that LatAm is not a uniform market. Slots account for 77.6% of game type, but concentrating on slots and sports betting alone may be short-sighted, as competition in those segments is rising fast. iGB suggests live casino or multiplayer bingo may be more interesting niches with a lower cost of player acquisition.

For operators and affiliates the key lesson is this: localisation does not mean only translating a site. It is a separate product, payment, regulatory and marketing strategy for each country. (iGB)

The key takeaway from July 2026

July 2026 shows that iGaming is entering a phase in which the advantage will belong to firms that combine scale, compliance, data and local adaptation. The UK and the Netherlands are tightening player protection. ESMA shows prediction markets will not escape financial regulation. Brazil and LatAm are growing, but demand a local approach. Africa and the Balkans show that without channelisation the legal market cannot beat offshore.

For operators this means higher costs, but also higher barriers to entry for competitors. For affiliates — a need to create content more aligned with local law, less aggressive on promotions, and more firmly grounded in credibility. For investors — a good moment to look not only at GGR growth, but also at the quality of regulation, tax risk and a market’s exposure to the black market.